Good News – Bad News

Tristant Nitot pointed to some of the most recent numbers for Mozilla Firefox's market share: 14.4% in Oceania, 14.1% in Europe, 11.8% in North America (12.3% in the US), 5.8% in Asia, 5.2% in South America and 4.3% in Africa. The good news is that these numbers have been steadily growing for a while and continue to do so to reach significant levels now in certain parts of the world (31% in Finland! Go Finland!). The work done by the Mozilla Foundation and the Mozilla volunteers is definitely paying off.

This latest study also shows that Firefox is being installed at a higher rate in homes than in offices. In Europe for instance, there's a 2.5 point difference between Firefox usage on week days and on week-ends. Given the way most companies administer their software resources this is not particularly surprising. It does somewhat undermine the idea that software travels from offices to the homes with people installing on their home computer whatever piece of software they're using at work.

The low percentage points in developing regions like Asia, South America and Africa are surprising to me. Free software is usually said to do better in developing countries — since it can be distributed, customized and translated into minority languages freely — but this is not what I'm seeing here. Though I don't really know how to explain this phenomenon, widespread software piracy could be a factor.

In countries where law enforcement resources are limited and where therefore commercial software can be acquired cheap or at no cost, the freedom to redistribute copies guaranteed by free software licenses, arguably the most interesting of all “software freedoms” for non-technical users, is illegally granted to all making the benefits of true free software moot. Moreover, in these conditions, the need for consumers to critically evaluate the price of software vs. its actual worth disappears because the financial cost of using or trying unsatisfactory software is virtually null. And since software prices in developing nations are comparatively higher than they are elsewhere, the gap between price and expectations which could be more significant there than in “developed” nations actually ends up being narrower. This in turns makes for fewer opportunities for free software to spread as an alternative to commercial, and potentially expensive and unsatisfactory, software.

So what's the bad news? Well, nothing really, except that I am impatient by nature and that I can't help but thinking that things are moving too slowly. Firefox is technically better than its alternative, it is one of the best advertised Free/Open Source projects, and yet it is reaching “only” 14.4% of its intended audience at its best (on average, per continent). While this steady progression is good news for Firefox, the relatively low percentage worries me when I think about GNOME, the fantastic Linux desktop. How long before Linux and GNOME have 14% of the computer desktop market share?